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Section 3 Future Without Project Conditions

EAA Storage Reservoirs Revised Draft PIR and EIS February 2006

3-4

addition, the continued storage of nutrient-rich waters would maintain reduced

water clarity that in turn adversely affects SAV areas.

3.1.6.2 Northern Estuaries

Between now and 2050, continued regulatory releases from Lake Okeechobee to

the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie River watersheds would further exacerbate

stormwater impacts to the estuaries by releases of freshwater impulses. During

the wet season, large pulses of freshwater should decrease salinity, increase

nutrient inflow and increase turbidity to the estuary, thereby adversely affecting

seagrasses.

3.1.6.3 Everglades Agricultural Area

Without the EAA Storage Reservoirs project, vegetation communities similar to

those described in the Existing Conditions section would continue to exist in

Compartment A and the entire EAA between now and 2050. Future

environmental conditions in the EAA without the Project should be influenced

by regional trends of soil subsidence and improving surface water quality. Of

the two trends, soil subsidence should have a greater effect on the plant

communities of the region. During the planning period, continued long-term

physical changes in the soil of the region would result in some shifts in land use

and vegetation cover, primarily in the most abundant land cover category-

disturbed agricultural lands. It would also affect remnant upland and wetland

communities within the region. Changes expected within the EAA include

continued loss of topsoil over time with current soil loss estimated at 0.6 inches

per year (Snyder, 2004). This rate of soil loss should continue, although some

evidence suggests that as soils become more mineralized, oxidation of the soil

and consequently, subsidence, will decrease. Regardless, changes in land cover

should occur as a result of soil subsidence within the project planning period. In

general, agriculture soils in the EAA evolve through a progression of agricultural

uses depending upon amount of topsoil available. It should be noted that this

discussion is related to generalized trends on how subsidence affects land cover,

without consideration of the important forces of politics and economics on

agriculture.

Historically, vegetables were the primary crop in the upper Everglades from the

1930s through the 1940s which required deeper soils and good water control. As

soil subsidence continued, sugarcane emerged as the primary crop due to its

ability to tolerate wetter, shallower soils. Wetter soils result from the reduced

ability to effectively drain shallow soils and the lowered land surface elevation

due to subsidence. As the soil layer diminishes over the bedrock, agricultural

products tolerant of wetter conditions such as rice or some pasture grasses are

favored and replace sugarcane. However, continued changes in agricultural

practices and/or cultivars may extend the time period for practical use of some

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